Southampton vs Watford betting tip

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I suspect this is a game rather difficult to assess for the bookies and
my model does not agree with their estimate of the most likely outcome
for over/under. It sees the overs as the most probable with a 53% chance
which would mean an odd of 1.89. Since the bookies offer 2.13 here I
will happily back the overs. Southampton ranks 5th for both shots and
shots on target at home this season while watford has averaged 2 goals
per game in their last 3 away encounters. This is huge and they rank 2nd
on that statistic. overs all the way for me.

Date: 13-1-2016 19:45
Pick: Over 2.5 @ 2.13
Category: England – EPL

Fixtures – All matches

Southampton
Match league date
D1 – 1 vs Aston Villa (H) Premier League 05/12/2015
L0 – 1 vs Crystal Palace (A) Premier League 12/12/2015
L0 – 2 vs Tottenham Hotspur (H) Premier League 19/12/2015
W4 – 0 vs Arsenal (H) Premier League 26/12/2015
L1 – 2 vs West Ham United (A) Premier League 28/12/2015
L0 – 1 vs Norwich City (A) Premier League 02/01/2016
L1 – 2 vs Crystal Palace (H) FA Cup 09/01/2016
vs Watford (H) Premier League 13/01/2016
vs West Bromwich Albion (H) Premier League 16/01/2016
vs Manchester United (A) Premier League 23/01/2016
Watford
Match league date
W2 – 0 vs Norwich City (H) Premier League 05/12/2015
W1 – 0 vs Sunderland (A) Premier League 12/12/2015
W3 – 0 vs Liverpool (H) Premier League 20/12/2015
D2 – 2 vs Chelsea (A) Premier League 26/12/2015
L1 – 2 vs Tottenham Hotspur (H) Premier League 28/12/2015
L1 – 2 vs Manchester City (H) Premier League 02/01/2016
W1 – 0 vs Newcastle United (H) FA Cup 09/01/2016
vs Eintracht Braunschweig (A) Club Friendlies 1 17/07/2015
vs Southampton (A) Premier League 13/01/2016
vs Swansea City (A) Premier League 18/01/2016

Fixtures – Head to Head

Home score Away league date
D
Watford
0 – 0 D
Southampton
Premier League 23/08/2015